[Nettime-bold] Michael Pastore: The End of the Web as We Know It

["geert lovink" <geert@xs4all.nl>]

     http://cyberatlas.internet.com/big_picture/applications/article/

  May 17, 2001

      The End of the Web as We Know It

      By Michael Pastore

      Less than 60 percent of the households in the United States,
      the world's most wired country, have Internet access, but
      already the CEO of Forrester Research is predicting the death
      of the World Wide Web and the dawn of a new,
      application-based Internet.

      No one doubts that Internet usage has boomed, but most of the
      access to this point has been through e-mail and Web
      browsers. But Forrester predicts the Web's days are numbered
      as the Internet will move to a second round of expansion
      beyond the browser. Two new waves of innovation -- which
      Forrester calls the "X Internet" -- will eclipse the Web: an
      executable Net that greatly improves the online experience,
      and an extended Net that connects the real world.

      "The problem with today's Internet is that it's dumb, boring
      and isolated," said George F. Colony, CEO and chairman of
      Forrester. "News, sports and weather imparted on static Web
      pages offer essentially the same content presented on paper,
      which makes the online experience more like reading in a
      dusty library than participating in a new medium. Now that
      the novelty has faded, business executives and consumers are
      going back to reading newspapers and watching TV. Ultimately,
      the Net hasn't truly become a part of our real worlds."

      The first stage of Forrester's X Internet is an executable
      Net, which will allow users to get real-time, interactive
      experiences over the Net through disposable code -- programs
      they use once and throw away -- downloaded to their PCs and
      handheld devices. These quick downloads will allow users to
      carry on extended conversations with Net services, a stark
      contrast to today's transactional Web services.

      "Today, users are trapped in Web-only thinking," said Carl D.
      Howe, research director and principal analyst at Forrester.
      "It's a little like the early days of television when
      programming was just radio with pictures of announcers. But
      executable applications will give users tools to experience
      the Net in more entertaining and engaging ways. For example,
      imagine a corporate buyer navigating a virtual marketplace
      with a Doom-like user interface -- buyers could simply shoot
      the deals they want. That's a far cry from today's Web."

      Forrester also foresees an extended Internet emerging through
      online devices and applications that sense, analyze and
      control the real world. Thanks to inexpensive chips and a
      worldwide Internet backbone, nearly every device that runs on
      electricity will have an Internet connection, using both
      wired and wireless networks. By 2010, Forrester predicts the
      number of Internet devices will boom from today's 100 million
      to more than 14 billion.

      "The extended Internet will reshape technology's role in
      business," Howe said. "Most firms struggle to understand and
      act upon what is happening in their business now -- they're
      lucky if they know what happened last week or last month.
      Extended Internet devices will provide real-time information
      about what is going on and provide knobs and levers for
      companies to control their businesses. A data center business
      in California might combine real-time data from both the
      power company and customers to reduce the power consumption
      of their air conditioners when power demand peaks -- all
      through extended Internet devices."


 


_______________________________________________
Nettime-bold mailing list
Nettime-bold@nettime.org
http://www.nettime.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/nettime-bold