[Nettime-bold] (Fwd) FW: A Perspective on Afghanistan

["Ivo Skoric" <ivo@reporters.net>]

This is interesting. I can't vouch for him having been in Afghanistan 
or at West Point, but what he wrote does make sense, even based 
just on what is by now public knowledge about the region and 
people there. 

The author ostensibly worked for the UN's mine action program in 
Afghanistan.  That program was the largest civilian employer in the 
country with over 5,000 persons clearing mines and UXO. Another 
interesting statistics about Afghanistan.

ivo
------- Forwarded Message Follows -------

Subject: A Perspective on Afghanistan

Subj: Grunt Special *IMPORTANT * READ* 
Date: 09/28/2001 10:46:47 AM US Mountain Standard Time 
From: SendMeHack 
BCC: CFSands 



         THIS IS AN IMPORTANT READ.  PLEASE GIVE IT MAX CIRCULATION.  TRY 
TO GET THIS DOCUMENT IN THE HANDS OF THE POLICY AND DECISION MAKERS. 

         KNOWING YOUR ENEMY IS THE MOST IMPORTANT KEY TO WAR.  THIS LETTER
WAS WRITTEN BY A VERY BRIGHT AND AFGHANISTAN STREET-SMART WEST POINT GRAD
TO HIS CLASSMATES.  HE KNOWS THE TERRAIN, THE ENEMY, AND THE WEATHER IN
AFGHANISTAN FROM BEING THERE, NOT FROM BOOKS. 

         BURN HIS WORDS AND ADVICE INTO YOUR BRAINS. 

         WE'LL WIN -- IF WE ALL HANG IN THERE UNTIL IT'S OVER OVER THERE. 

         HACK 
     _____________________________________________________________ 

         CLASSMATES: 
  
Many of you are probably not aware that I was one of the last American
citizens to have spent a great deal of time in Afghanistan.  I was first
there in 1993, providing relief and assistance to refugees along the Tajik
border, and in this capacity have traveled all along the border region
between the two countries.   

In 1998 and 1999, I was the Deputy Program Manager for the UN's 
mine action program in Afghanistan.  This program is the largest 
civilian employer in the country with over 5,000 persons clearing 
mines and UXO.  In this later capacity, I was somewhat ironically 
engaged in a "Holy War," as decreed by the Taliban, against the 
evil of landmines; and by a special proclamation of Mullah Omar, 
all those who might have died in this effort were considered to be 
"martyrs" -- even an "infidel" like myself.     

The mine action program is the most respected relief effort in the country,
and because of this I had the opportunity to travel extensively without too
much interference or restriction.  I still have extensive contacts in the
area and among the Afghan community and read a great deal on the subject. 

I had wanted to write earlier and share some of my perspectives, but quite
frankly, I have been a bit too popular in DC this past week and have not
had time.  Dr. Tony Kern's comments were excellent and I would like to use
them as a basis for sharing some observations. 

First, he is absolutely correct.  This war is about will, resolve and
character.  I want to touch on that later, but first I want to share some
comments about our "enemy." 

Our enemy is not the people of Afghanistan.  The country is devastated
beyond what most of us can imagine.  The vast majority of the people live
day-to-day, hand-to-mouth in abject conditions of poverty, misery and
deprivation.  Less than 30% of the men are literate, the women even less.
The country is exhausted, and desperately wants something like peace. They
know very little of the world at large, and have no access to information
or knowledge that would counter what they are being told by the Taliban.
They have nothing left, nothing that is except for their pride. 

Who is our enemy?  Well, our enemy is a group of non-Afghans, often
referred to by the Afghans as "Arabs" and a fanatical group of religious
leaders and their military cohort, the Taliban.  The non-Afghan contingent
came from all over the Islamic world to fight in the war against the
Russians. Many came using a covert network created with assistance by our
own government. 

OBL (as Osama bin Laden was referred to by us in the country at the time)
restored this network to bring in more fighters, this time to support the
Taliban in their civil war against the former Mujehdeen.  Over time, this
military support along with financial support has allowed OBL and his
"Arabs" to co-opt significant government activities and leaders.  OBL is
the "inspector general" of Taliban armed forces; his bodyguards protect
senior Talib leaders and he has built a system of deep bunkers for the
Taliban, which were designed to withstand cruise missile strikes (uhm,
where did he learn to do that?).  His forces basically rule the southern
city of Kandahar. 

This high-profile presence of OBL and his "Arabs" has, in the last 2 years
or so, started to generate a great deal of resentment on the part of the
local Afghans.  At the same time, the legitimacy of the Taliban regime has
started to decrease as it has failed to end the war, as local humanitarian
conditions have worsened and as "cultural" restrictions have become even
harsher. 
  
It is my assessment that most Afghans no longer support the Taliban.
Indeed the Taliban have recently had a very difficult time getting recruits
for their forces and have had to rely more and more on non-Afghans, either
from Pushtun tribes in Pakistan or from OBL.  OBL and the Taliban, absent
any US action, were probably on their way to sharing the same fate that all
other outsiders and outside doctrines have experienced in Afghanistan --
defeat and dismemberment. 
  
During the Afghan war with the Soviets, much attention was paid to the
martial prowess of the Afghans.  We were all at West Point at the time, and
most of us had high-minded idealistic thoughts about how we would all want
to go help the brave "freedom fighters" in their struggle against the
Soviets. 
  
Those concepts were naive to the extreme.  The Afghans, while never
conquered as a nation, are not invincible in battle.  A "good" Afghan
battle is one that makes a lot of noise and light.  Basic military skills
are rudimentary and clouded by cultural constraints that no matter what, a
warrior should never lose his honor.  Indeed, firing from the prone is
considered distasteful (but still done).  

Traditionally, the Afghan order of battle is very feudal in nature, with
fighters owing allegiance to a "commander," and this person owing
allegiance upwards and so on and so on.  Often such allegiance is secured
by payment.  And while the Taliban forces have changed this somewhat, many
of the units in the Taliban army are there because they are being paid to
be there.  All such groups have very strong loyalties along ethnic and
tribal lines.   

Again, the concept of having a place of "honor" and "respect" is of
paramount importance and blood feuds between families and tribes can last
for generations over a perceived or actual slight.  That is one reason why
there were 7 groups of Mujehdeen fighting the Russians.  It is a very
difficult task to form and keep united a large bunch of Afghans into a
military formation.  The "real" stories that have come out of the war
against the Soviets are very enlightening and a lot different from our
fantastic visions as cadets.   

When the first batch of Stingers came in and were given to one Mujehdeen
group, another group -- supposedly on the same side -- attacked the first
group and stole the Stingers, not so much because they wanted to use them,
but because having them was a matter of prestige. 

Many larger coordinated attacks that advisers tried to conduct failed when
all the various Afghan fighting groups would give up their assigned tasks
(such as blocking or overwatch) and instead would join the assault group in
order to seek glory.    

In comparison to Vietnam, the intensity of combat and the rate of
fatalities were lower for all involved. 

As you can tell from above, it is my assessment that these guys are not
THAT good in a purely military sense and the "Arabs" probably even less so
than the Afghans.  So why is it that they have never been conquered?  It
goes back to Dr. Kern's point about will.    

During their history, the only events that have managed to form any
semblance of unity among the Afghans, is the desire to fight foreign
invaders.  And in doing this, the Afghans have been fanatical.  The
Afghans' greatest military strength is the ability to endure hardships that
would, in all probability, kill most Americans and enervate the resolve of
all but the most elite military units.   

The physical difficulties of fighting in Afghanistan, the terrain, the
weather, and the harshness are all weapons that our enemies will use to
their advantage and use well.  (NOTE: For you military planner types and
armchair generals: around November 1st, most road movement is impossible,
in part because all the roads used by the Russians have been destroyed and
air movement will be problematic at best).  Also, those fighting us are not
afraid to fight.  OBL and others do not think the US has the will or the
stomach for a fight.  Indeed after the absolutely inane missile strikes of
1998, the overwhelming consensus was that we were cowards who would not
risk one life in face-to-face combat.   

Rather than demonstrating our might and acting as a deterrent, that action
and others of the not so recent past, have reinforced the perception that
the US does not have any "will" and that we are morally and spiritually
corrupt. 

Our challenge is to play to the weaknesses of our enemy, notably their
propensity for internal struggles, the distrust between the
extremists/Arabs and the majority of Afghans, their limited ability to
fight coordinated battles, and their lack of external support.  More
importantly through is that we have to take steps not to play to their
strengths, which would be to unite the entire population against us by
increasing their suffering or killing innocents, to get bogged down trying
to hold terrain, or to get into a battle of attrition chasing up and down
mountain valleys. 

I have been asked how I would fight the war.  This is a big question and
well beyond my pay grade or expertise.  And while I do not want to second
guess current plans or start an academic debate, I would share the
following from what I know about Afghanistan and the Afghans.   

First, I would give the Northern Alliance a big wad of cash so that they
can buy off a chunk of the Taliban army before winter.  Second, also with
this cash, I would pay some guys to kill some of the Taliban leadership,
making it look like an inside job to spread distrust and build on existing
discord.  Third I would support the Northern alliance with military assets,
but not take it over or adopt so high a profile as to undermine its
legitimacy in the eyes of most Afghans. 

Fourth would be to give massive amounts of humanitarian aid and assistance
to the Afghans in Pakistan in order to demonstrate our goodwill and to give
these guys a reason to live rather than the choice between dying of
starvation or dying fighting the "infidel."  Fifth, start a series of
public works projects in areas of the country not under Taliban control
(these are much more than the press reports) again to demonstrate goodwill
and that improvements come with peace.  Sixth, I would consider very
carefully putting any female service members into Afghanistan proper --
sorry to the females of our class but within that culture a man who allows
a women to fight for him has zero respect, and we will need respect to gain
the cooperation of Afghan allies.  No Afghan will work with a man who
fights with women.   

I would hold off from doing anything too dramatic in the new term, keeping
a low level of covert action and pressure up over the winter, allowing this
pressure to force open the fissions around the Taliban that were already
developing -- expect that they will quickly turn on themselves and on OBL.   

We can pick up the pieces next summer, or the summer after.    

When we do "pick up" the pieces, I would make sure that we do so on the
ground, "man to man." 

While I would never want to advocate American causalities, it is essential
that we communicate to OBL and all others watching that we can and will
"engage and destroy the enemy in close combat."  As mentioned above, we
should not try to gain or hold terrain, but Infantry operations against the
enemy are essential.  There can be no excuses after the defeat or lingering
doubts in the minds of our enemies regarding American resolve and nothing,
nothing will communicate this except for ground combat.   

And once this is all over, unlike in 1989, the US must provide continued
long-term economic assistance to rebuild the country. 

While I have written too much already, I think it is also important to
share a few things on the subject of brutality.  Our opponents will not
abide by the Geneva conventions.  There will be no prisoners unless there
is a chance that they can be ransomed or made part of a local prisoner
exchange. 
  
During the war with the Soviets, videotapes were made of communist
prisoners having their throats slit.  Indeed, there did exist a "trade" in
prisoners so that souvenir videos could be made by outsiders to take home
with them. 
   
This practice has spread to the Philippines, Bosnia and Chechnya where
similar videos are being made today and can be found on the web for those
so inclined.  We can expect our soldiers to be treated the same way.
Sometime during this war I expect that we will see videos of US prisoners
having their heads cut off.   

Our enemies will do this not only to demonstrate their "strength" to their
followers, but also to cause us to overreact, to seek wholesale revenge
against civilian populations, and to turn this into the world-wide
religious war that they desperately want. 
  
This will be a test of our will and of our character. (For further
collaboration of this type of activity please read Kipling). 
  
This will not be a pretty war; it will be a war of wills, of resolve and
somewhat conversely of compassion and of a character.  Towards our enemies,
we must show a level of ruthlessness that has not been part of our military
character for a long time.  But to those who are not our enemies we must
show a level of compassion probably unheard of during war.  We should do
this not for humanitarian reasons, even though there are many, but for
shrewd military logic. 
  
For anyone who is still reading this way too long note, thanks for your
patience.  I will try to answer any questions that may arise in a more
concise manner. 

  Thanks,  Richard Kidd 




Owen Beith
Freelance Translator ES/FR/PT->EN
London E2 9JG
+44 (0)20 8981 9879 


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