| Keith Sanborn on Sun, 13 Mar 2022 05:34:44 +0100 (CET) |
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| Re: <nettime> Is Russia losing in Ukraine? Indian army generals respond (Times of India video) |
| Interesting perspective. The interview questions were well-researched and posed quite pointedly as one might expect. Otherwise, it seemed that both generals had their own biases, some ideological. Chauhan was clearly either an apologist for Russia or badly informed ("We don’t know what the Ukrainians think about their President." It seems clear we do know that Ukrainains, even those who opposed him, are resisting the invasion and supporting Zelinsky. "30% of Eastern Ukrainians are pro-Russian." Actually they are Russian speakers: so is Zelinsky. That doesn’t make them sympathetic to a Russian invasion. This is almost a Putin talking point.) That said, Chauhan, while an apologist for Russian military failure, did make a plausible argument that this first invasion force, was simply a reconnaissance force and that the main invasion would be launched later. If I am recalling correctly, he was dead wrong about the impression that Russian bombing campaigns are making abroad; he was right that they are designed to wreak havoc on the Ukrainian population. How finely calibrated they are, is up for grabs. Putin has not appeared “rational,” by offering humanitarian corridors leading to Russia, though his larger strategy has proved formidable. I was especially interested in the discussion of Indian military procurement. What happens if Russia can’t supply parts for Indian Migs? General Hasnain suggested that Russia was having problems sourcing parts for its own aircraft in Ukraine. General Chauhan simply asserted that the supply to India was guaranteed. Hasnain seemed a bit more skeptical about Russian military competence; not sure if that makes him “pro-western.” He certainly made a point of disavowing “western” strategic analysis of the situation in Ukraine. In any case, India has been constrained by military dependence on Russia for arms on joining any international boycott. There will certainly be some longterm price to pay for that, especially as India tries to ramp up its homegrown tech industry. I would predict a slow-down in US technology transfer, though there are other places they can go. And what’s the future of US visas for Indian engineers? In these matters, financial considerations will likely take precedence over morality. India has a surfeit of highly trained engineers with inadequate employment opportunities at home. That can be a formula for civil discontent as we have seen in North Africa. Ironically, both generals agreed that military procurement and military self-sufficiency were long-terms issues and the difficult point of Pakistan as part of the Euriasian/Belt and Road initiative also provided insights. So far, India has been relying on Russia’s support against China in their border disputes, at least in the form of weapons I think they sense that support is tenuous as Pakistan is central to the Eurasian project as well as stability in Russian client states with large Muslim populations. Who knows who is going to get played; the Pakistani military have been playing the US for years. Russia is not in a position of strength here, nor is China, though Pakistan has bought in to Belt and Road. One has to wonder about blow-back in Pakistan concerning the Chinese treatment of Uighur Muslims. Pakistan is a country where blasphemy (against Islam) carries the death penalty, even if it’s seldom enforced. What happens if Pakistan launches an offensive in Kashmir at the same time China attacks in its disputed border regions with India? Neither regions are particularly hospitable to Russian made tank warfare, if I am not mistaken. One final point: Did Putin’s threat to use nuclear weapons effectively “checkmate" a military response from Europe and NATO, as the interviewer suggests? Perhaps it's simply a gambit, in short, a bluff. What if the US or Europe were to call that bluff, or make military countermoves, like those Polish Migs. Whoops. Guess it’s time to remove my armchair general’s uniform. Keith
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