Re: <nettime> The War to come ...

Interesting argument. But I think this discussion has some basic issues:

a) on one person

Putin missed that it is not one but there must be a group. Obviously as leader of that group, he might be most important. But just servicing himself would not last. Others have power, enjoy their rich etc. Ability to maintain and distribute the rich is one of the skill set one should not undermine. That is one key dimension of politics - re-distribution. Ask those Russian in Thailand and said it is all about Putin, … not really. There are more support than we think.

b) Miscalculation in an incomplete information world

The basic argument might be right. But one of the issue raised in the “Essence of Decision” is that this sole action model would not work as it is too perfect - information, strategy, country as a whole act like one. Market, Politics, Social, … all does not really act as one. Once it is not one that maximise the benefit or whatsoever, there would be difference. And that difference cause trouble as the real world does not work as you expect it to be. Whilst one does not need to subscribe to the basic principle of all are inherent networked and has random element (fundamental emptiness principle), one should understand that it is NOT a chess but a poker at best. Incomplete information, strange playing tactics etc. This is particular problematic as Russia get used to the fall of 3 regions in Ukraine. Hence, getting more is “rational” but getting the whole state … the key like Japan attack Pearl Harbour it is all on the premises the other side just give in. If Japan get all those aircraft carrier … if Kyiv is down and … But the world is full of “strange” reaction. And this is the real world.

Just let us hope the further path he would take like chemical and biological warfare would not extend to nuclear. And also if you are right and he is in a corner, will he push the button like Trump basically asked his supporters to storm the Congress.

Now he knew more information, and he continue play chess in a world of poker (or he play poker but was called bluff) … it is an “interesting” but very sad and bloody world we are in.

c) Think too much of Russia importance like him

The key issue at stake is China. Its raise and its ambition towards Pacific etc. would be fulfilled. Recent discussion in Economist is a good example. The autocratic state and economy has grown to about 30%, with China 15%. And China as a power is not self contained easily as it does not have, well, power and even food. This is unlike the WW1-2 USA, which can opt for isolationist approach. With that, you have a big issues in the world play.

Russia knew that. Hence Putin moved to China and confirmed the support by the Chinese at the pre-game move. What the Chinese knew and did not know is an “interesting” question. But it is history now. The key is would we become a Sino-Russia Empire, with some Arabic country coming in as part of it. The breakdown is along autocratic line. No ideology. All realist politics. Then the world will be very dark as there would be fight not just between but also within. After all, if Russia is a junior partner and it got at least 1/4 land of Qing Empire … do you have the since ancient time is not an argument for C?

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On 23 Mar 2022, at 11:00 AM, nettime-l-request@mail.kein.org wrote:

Re: <nettime> The War to come ...