<nettime> The Cesation of a Cease-Fire

["Ivo Skoric" <ivo@reporters.net>]

Of over 800,000 Albanians expelled from their homes, about a half are 
refugees outside Kosovo. It has been reported that there is not a 
large number of military age men among them. There are two reasons 
for that:
1. they are killed or are held by Serbs
2. they joined KLA to fight the Serbs

There are, indeed, reports of large numbers of Albanian emigrees 
traveling to Albania to help their brethren in Kosovo.

The so-called unilateral cease fire that Milosevic declared to honor 
Orthodox Eastern (although Albanians are either Muslim or Catholic) 
is, apparently, only pertaining to Yugoslav Army activities against 
KLA, because Serb police and paramilitary units (Arkan's Tigers) are 
still attacking KLA positions despite that cease fire. Massacre 
continues. And Vuk Draskovic, Milosevic's first poodle, invites 
just expelled refugees back.

On the other hand, KLA is pointing out to NATO the objects (bridges, 
roads, etc.) that it wants destroyed in Kosovo. Of course, NATO 
denies any cooperation with KLA. But the targets KLA chooses do get 
destroyed by NATO.

Rugova meanwhile appears talking to Milosevic quite too often. Where 
does he stay? He is obviously not in Kosovo. And nobody can find him 
in Belgrade. Sources close to NATO deducted from those facts that he 
might be in some sort of house arrest by Milosevic.

Even Greeks timidly started condemning Serbian policy in Kosovo - 
mostly fearing from more refugees. They still envision Kosovo as part 
of Serbia, though.

Lord Owen came up with another nebulous idea: give Kosovo to 
Albanians, and swap it for Republika Srpska - give RS to Serbia. 
Westendorp flatly rejected this monstrosity.

KLA do not use word autonomy any more. Independence is the only 
acceptable outcome.

One cruise missile missed the target and hit the residential 
area in the mining town of Aleksinac. Shit happens. It may happen 
more with the attacks intensifying and coming closer to the ground.

The mayor of Belgrade, Bozic, said that 3 captured US soldiers should 
not be tried and should be released "as soon as the stupidity
ends." He also said that the cease fire was declared because his 
government believes that KLA is all but destroyed. Interesting 
deviations from the official line. He should be observed.

Milosevic's wife Mira lead the human shield operation on one of the 
Belgrade bridges in person. That means that Milosevic is completely 
convinced that NATO will honor its pledge to minimize human 
casualties. 

Both Russia and China stress the importance of maintaining good 
relations with the U.S. despite their differences over NATO 
air-strikes against Yugoslavia.

Conclusion:
I am not a great fan of the "tomahawk diplomacy," but I am even more 
disgusted of Milosevic's destructive policies in past ten years. 
Instead of taking sides I am trying to present what I see is 
actually happening. This war will last until NATO achieves its 
military objective, and NATO will eventually prevail. We will see 
some Serbian blood spilled. We will also see some NATO casualties. 
Albanians will suffer greatly until NATO finally prevails. Kosovo 
will become independent with NATO support and KLA units serving as 
ground forces to escort refugees back (this is the cheapest way). 
Milosevic might finally fall, but I wouldn't bet on it yet. I will, 
however, cease posting my daily comments now, since I am tired of 
this war, and it is now obvious which direction it will take.

ivo

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