<nettime> Re: Chechnya is Russian Kosovo

["Press" <press@russ.ru>]

Just another stupid war

The second war in Chechnya was only possible after the Kosovo show. 
Precisely after the success of this military operation, achieved in
technical terms (no casualties, total capitulation). But before the
predictable long-term negative effects become common knowledge. 

Russian military people seized the opportunity to take revenge on
Chechnya, modeling their operation after American 'counter-terrorist'
attacks. In public conscience this operation is portrayed as an answer to
Moscow explosions that recently buried a couple of apartment buildings.
However, no connection between these attacks and Chechen rebels has been
established not by the police, but by the Russian government. 

It is hard to resist the feeling that this war was started to boost
Russian prime minister Putin's rÁting (which it did) all the way to the
presidential campaign of summer 2000. But this mission impossible is
impossible indeed - Russians are evil for Chechen youth, brought up at war
and thinking only of wartime careers, established by such role-models as
commander Basaev. 

Chechens are like revolutionaries in Latin America (and Russians are
Americans for them). Basaev is Che Gevara of our times, but instead of
communism Islam is the ideology of resistance. This ideology may look
peculiar, but still it answers all the practical needs a revolutionary or
a rebel inevitably faces. 

Islam provides allies and finance, arms and fighters. What more could you
ask for?  The images of building blown to pieces are still vivid in public
conscience, but when they start to fade away, Russia will be split again
on the war issue. 

War-mongers ("let us solve this problem once and for ever") and doves
("you did not solve it last time, you're only going to make things worse
again") will fight again for public support and voters. This split is
already evident, but it will surely develop rapidly during the election
campaign for parliament seats (election day December 19, 1999)  and will
reach its apogee in the spring of 2000. 

Putin will press for war, others - for peace. Puppet government will be
installed anyway.  How many Chechen fighters will by destroyed by the
Russian army and how many civilians?  God only knows that. 

Just another stupid "problem-solving" war with unpredictable outcomes,
destined to push the Chechen issue into the new millennium. 

It can only be added that as well as during the Kosovo conflict it is hard
to stay informed by the mainstream media. As the split grows, however,
more facts will become known.  But Russian politicians are so afraid to
show a lack of patriotism that this war is going to drag on for months if
not years. Much will depend on the new parliament - will it be as ugly and
conservative as this one? 

But one thing you should not count upon is public protest. It is only
possible if one of Russian liberal movements ('Yabloko', or, much less
likely, the 'Right forces union')  invests heavily its election budgets
into organizing it. Anyway, right now organizing protests does not look
like no-risk fool-proof votes-winning tactic. 

It is so cold out here - and everything about this war seems so uncertain,
so unclear. This country is so tired of politics that it can tolerate a
small war with some casualties, simply not to notice the difference
between aims (fight against terrorists)  and means (civilian casualties
and total destruction of cities and villages).  As any modern democracy
does, really. As long as the victims of violence are not considered as
equals. 

iz


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