An interesting and very plausible analysis by
STRATFOR.
AJC
Taliban Withdrawal Was Strategy, Not Rout
November 15, 2001
In less than a
week, Taliban fighters have been swept from most of northern Afghanistan, including the key cities of
Mazar-e-Sharif, Herat, Kunduz, Taloqan, Bamiyan,
Jalalabad and the capital Kabul. How did a force that only two
months ago controlled most of Afghanistan get swept from the battlefield so
quickly, and is the battle over? Evidence suggests it has only just begun.
Northern Alliance troops moved into Kabul on Nov. 13, less than a week after
launching an offensive that has swept the Taliban from most of northern Afghanistan.
The Northern
Alliance now controls the key cities of Mazar-e-Sharif, Herat, Kunduz and Taloqan, all located
astride vital supply routes into neighboring countries. Popular uprisings have
reportedly ousted the Taliban from Bamiyan and Jalalabad, and there are even
reports of anti-Taliban Pushtun forces marching on Kandahar. On the surface it appears a
lightning offensive by the Northern Alliance -- supported by U.S. aerial bombardment -- has shattered
the Taliban army in a matter of days. But have the Taliban been defeated? An
examination of the Taliban withdrawal suggests the group has intentionally
surrendered territory in the interest of adopting tactics more amenable to its
strengths.
If the United States and its allies misread the Taliban
withdrawal as a rout, they could quickly find themselves locked in a nasty
guerrilla war in Afghanistan. Worse, that war is likely to
spread beyond Afghanistan's borders, as the core of Taliban and al Qaeda forces
in that country seek to secure their supply lines and capitalize on their
strengths and their opponents' weaknesses.
© 2001 Strategic Forecasting LLC. All rights reserved.
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